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Weberlog


 Daily Kos predictions; Speaker Hoyer?
 

Kos is THE Master of the liberal blogsphere. His predictions:

HOUSE (231 R - 202 D)

15 seats gives us Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a fierce battle between John Murtha and Steny Hoyer for House Majority Leader.

24 seat pickup if there's no wave, which I think is the likelier outcome.

36 seat pickup if there is a wave.

Shocker upset: There are several candidates to choose from -- ID-01, WA-05, NE-03, and CO-05 all qualify, and are all surprisingly winnable races in solidly Republican districts. But my shocker upset pick is Gary Trauner in the Wyoming at-large seat.

SENATE (55 R - 45 D)

I can't imagine it would actually happen, but what if the Democrats take control by just a few seats, and the new members are DINO's (Democrats In Name Only.) Question for my Democrat friends......Any chance that these new Congressmen, with enough existing conservative / moderate / realistic Democrats, might decide that they don't want a liberal San Francisco Democrat as the face of the party?  Hoyer ran a close race against Pelosi for leader last time around, you know.

Posted by Weber at 2:47 PM - No Comments   Add a Comment  
 
 Weather for Election Day in battleground states
 

Election Day Weather [Jonah Goldberg]
From a reader:

Rain in Tennessee, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island.  Will this keep independent turnout down?

Posted by Weber at 2:37 PM - No Comments   Add a Comment  
 
 More evidence the Republican leadership doesn't get it...
 

As Bad As Telemarketers [John J. Miller] NRO The Corner

I just received a recorded phone call at home from Sen. John Warner, urging my family to vote for George Allen. We've been getting at least two political calls per day for the last week, from both parties, mostly about the Senate race but also about a state referendum. They are seriously annoying. I can see how a call or two can help motivate turnout, but this bombardment of unsolicited calls makes me wonder whether some people will retaliate by not voting at all.

My private phone number is on the federal do-not-call registry, which keeps telemarketers from bugging me. The politicians, of course, have exempted themselves from this ban. They shouldn't.

Posted at 11:00 AM

There is no reason that Congress should EVER be exempted from anything from which private firms are not.  And this is Denny Hastert and Bill Frist's fault.

Posted by Weber at 1:55 PM - 1 Comment   Add a Comment  
 
 If we leave Iraq, it's a bloodbath and devastating to US prestige worldwide
 

"SOLDIERS IN IRAQ SAY PULLOUT WOULD HAVE DEVASTATING RESULTS" [Byron York] NRO The Corner

That's the headline of a Washington Post WaPo story, not exactly featured on page A-13.  From the article:

FORWARD OPERATING BASE SYKES, Iraq, Nov. 5 .....— For the U.S. troops fighting in Iraq.............leaving Iraq now would have devastating consequences, they said.
....... many soldiers said the United States should not abandon its effort here. Such a move, enlisted soldiers and officers said, would set Iraq on a path to civil war, give new life to the insurgency and create the possibility of a failed state after nearly four years of fighting to implant democracy.

"Take us out of that vacuum — and it's on the edge now — and boom, it would become a free-for-all," said Lt. Col. Mark Suich, who commands the 1st Squadron, 89th Cavalry Regiment just south of Baghdad. "It would be a raw contention for power. That would be the bloodiest piece of this war."

Other voices who have endorsed this view include every living Secretary of Defense.  At the Southern Center for International Studies (SCIS) annual conference of former SecDef's, EVERY single one unequivocally stated that "we must win" in Iraq.

One quote "The loss of Iraq would be devastating to our prestige."

I remember this vividly.....I was in the room.

For those who are upset at the loss of life now, American and Iraqi...imagine it getting ten times worse within weeks of our leaving. (I'm talking to you, John Murtha.....)

Posted by Weber at 1:43 PM - No Comments   Add a Comment  
 
 Previous polls a warning shot across the Republican leadership's bow
 

From NRO The Corner: [Jonah Goldberg] The USA Today/Gallup poll shows a sagging for the Dems too: "A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7."

This cannot all be John Kerry's fault..........I think that the previous results were intended by Republican voters to be a warning shot across the House and Senate leadership's bow......Not that the leadership could change anything in the last month of the cycle, but they have definitely been running scared...and that's a very good thing.  The way they have conducted themselves on Abramhoff, Foley, earmarks, immigration, the budget, ethics, etc. has been disgraceful.  Republican voters don't want them out of power, but IF they hold on and things don't change, look for a lot of primary challengers next cycle.

Posted by Weber at 1:17 PM - No Comments   Add a Comment  
 
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