Saturday I was with a group of seven for dinner that I would characterize as core Republican voters, all Atlanta residents, with the exception of one woman from Chicago.
Their profiles: All college educated, well read Republicans. These are folks who vote regularly in primaries and general elections.
Two couples in their late 40’s; one with three children, the other I am uncertain if they have children; a lady in her 60’s, a young professional women about 40, (all originally from the Midwest) and a young guy in his 20’s (raised in NYC.) One couple are strong Christians, but not evangelicals, the others at the table I would guess are standard moderate to conservative Republicans and I am uncertain about their religious affiliation.
I asked about the 2008 race. I mentioned that a recent South Carolina poll (where the race will most likely be decided) had Giuliani, McCain and Newt in the top three spots, with Mitt Romney in single digits. I asked what they thought of the candidates, and was surprised to discover that Giuliani and Newt, at this point, had no chance with these voters.
For Giuliani and Newt it had nothing to do with their political positions, but with their personal lives. (One man expressed genuine admiration for Newt’s intelligence.)
It wasn’t the multiple marriages…it was that both Rudy and Newt had conducted affairs while still married. I got the feeling that they would have forgiven the multiple marriages if these men had been divorced before moving on to the next woman.
On McCain, there was significant anger about campaign finance. One man said “I’ll never forgive him for McCain Feingold.”
On Mitt, I asked the Mormon question. This was not a problem for these folks…a quote “If he shares my values, it doesn't bother me that he is from a kind of different sect of Christianity.”
Whit Ayers, who is premier Republican pollster in the Southeast, answered this question the same way when I asked him about it at a dinner six months or so ago. “If the choice is between a guy who shares my values and one who doesn’t, I’m going with the guy who shares mine.”
On Barack Obama, three of the women had seen his appearance on Ophra, and thought he was a very attractive candidate. Even when asked about the fact that he is certainly a liberal (ADA rating of 100, to the left of Hillary) it did not dissuade them. I don’t think they would actually vote for him, but he does pose a danger to the Republicans.
As usual, Charles Krauthammer made a great point on the Hume show saying “Voters will not turn to some with little experience during wartime.” But obviously Obama could provide a massive lift to the Democrats in the VP slot.
