Politico

“I don’t think anyone’s shaken,” a leading House Democrat told me. The critical mass of Democratic congressmen that has been prepared to endorse Obama when the timing seemed right remains prepared to do so. Their reasons, ones they have held for months, have not changed – and by their very nature are unlikely to.

Essentially, they are three:

(a) Hillary Rodham Clinton is such a polarizing figure that everyone who ever considered voting Republican in November, and even many who never did, will go to the polls to vote against her, thus jeopardizing Democrats down the ticket – i.e., themselves, or, for party leaders, the sizeable majorities they hope to gain in the House and the Senate in November.

(b) To take the nomination away from Obama when he is leading in the elected delegate count would deeply alienate the black base of the Democratic Party, and, in the words of one leading Democrat, “The superdelegates are not going to switch their voter and jeopardize the future of the Democratic Party for generations.” Such a move, he said, would also disillusion the new, mostly young, voters who have entered into politics for the first time because of Obama, and lose the votes of independents who could make the critical difference in November.

(c) Because the black vote can make the decisive difference in numerous congressional districts, discarding Obama could cost the Democrats numerous seats.

One Democratic leader told me, “If we overrule the elected delegates there would be mayhem.” Hillary Rodham Clinton’s claim that she has, or will have, won the popular vote does not impress them – both because of her dubious math and because, as another key Democrat says firmly, “The rules are that it’s the delegates, period.” (These views are closely aligned with Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s statement earlier this year that the superdelegates should not overrule the votes of the elected delegates.)

Furthermore, the congressional Democratic leaders don’t draw the same conclusion from Pennsylvania and also earlier contests that many observers think they do: that Obama’s candidacy is fatally flawed because he has as yet been largely unable to win the votes of working class whites. They point out something that has been largely overlooked in all the talk – the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries were closed primaries, and, one key congressional Democrat says, “Yes, he doesn’t do really well with a big part of the Democratic base, but she doesn’t do well with independents, who will be critical to success in November.”

Webcomment:

Great analysis, but there is still significant danger for D's....

If Obama is the nominee and gets crushed a la McGovern in '72, (which I think is likely) the next time around, blacks and young voters may be so disillusioned (America not ready for a black Ptesdient, still a backward racist nation) turning them out in the next Presidential election will be even tougher....

"As Frank Rich and Maureen Dowd prove weekly, every single aspect of American politics can be expressed in terms of either a movie or a Broadway musical, and it’s a rare Sunday that I don’t put down the oped page of the New York Times without a showtune on my lips and a host of unrelated similes rattling around in my brain. "

Kahane on NRO

Larry Kudlow:

"The U.S. has spent roughly $750 billion for the five-year war. Sure, that’s a lot of money. But run the numbers and the total cost works out to a miniscule 1 percent of the $63 trillion GDP over that time period."

I love Europe and am thankful for our allies there, but I have had experiencess similar to those below from time to time.  Last week I was at an international type of lunchoen, (actually it happened to be the annual meeting of the French American Chamber of Commerce) and I ran into a Frenchman who I had met on a couple of occasions.

He just couldn't resist making three anti-American comments in the first five minutes of conversation.  Yet he lives here, works here, and is sending his children to American colleges (one of them to Princeton.)  I, being a guest at the event, refrained from admonishing him.  He could do well to behave in the same fashion as long as he is taking advantage of living here....

I would never make a negative comment to a a national of a country in which I had chosen to live and work.  It's just in poor taste and worse manners. 

Four stories....hat tip to Uncle Frank:

Four Great Stories
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
When in England at a fairly large conference, Colin Powell was asked by the Archbishop of Canterbury if our r plans for Iraq were just an example of empire building by George Bush.
He answered by saying, 'Over the years, the United States has sent many of its fine young men and women into great peril to fight for freedom beyond our borders. The only amount of land we have ever asked for in return is enough land to bury those that did not return.

You could have heard a pin drop.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Then there was a conference in France where a number of international engineers were taking part, including French and American. During a break one of the French engineers came back into the room saying Have you heard the latest dumb stunt Bush has done? He has sent an aircraft carrier to Indonesia to help the tsunami victims. What does he intended to do, bomb them? 

A Boeing engineer stood up and replied quietly: 'Our carriers have three hospitals on board that can treat several hundred people; they are nuclear powered and can supply emergency electrical power to shore facilities; they have three cafeterias with the capacity to feed 3,000 people three meals a day, they can produce several l thousand gallons of fresh water from sea water each day, and they carry half a dozen helicopters for use in transporting victims and injured to and from their flight deck.. We have eleven such ships; how many does France have?

You could have heard a pin drop.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A U. S. Navy Admiral was attending a naval conference that included Admirals from the U. S., English, Canadian, Australian and French Navies. At a cocktail reception, he found himself standing with a large group of Offi cers that included personnel from most of those countries. Everyone was chatting away in English as they sipped their drinks but a French admiral suddenly complained that, 'whereas Europeans learn many languages, Americans learn only English.' He then asked, 'Why is it that we always have to speak English in these conferences rather than speaking French?'

Without hesitating, the American Admiral replied 'Maybe it's because the Brits, Canadians, Aussies and Americans arranged it so you wouldn't have to speak German.'

You could have heard a pin drop.

~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A group of Americans, retired teachers, recently went to France on a tour. Robert Whiting, an elderly gentleman of 83, arrived in Paris by plane. At French Customs, he took a few minutes to locate his passport in his carry on. 'You have been to France before, monsieur?' the customs officer asked sarcastically. Mr. Whiting admitted that he had been to France previously. 'Then you should know enough to have your passport ready.'

The American said, 'The last time I was here, I didn't have to show it Impossible. Americans always have to show your passports on arrival in France!'

The American senior gave the Frenchman a long hard look. Then he quietly explained. 'Well, when I came ashore at Omaha Beach on D-day in '44 to help liberate this country, I couldn't find any damn Frenchmen to show it to. You could have heard a pin drop.

I'm putting up a new and improved site and will return to regular blogging.

Hear a podcast or two of my appearance on WGKA 920AM's round table here:

http://920wgka.townhall.com/MediaPlayer/AudioPlayer.aspx?ContentGuid=179e3f06-0d48-497a-a64a-a1bf8384b88f

http://920wgka.townhall.com/MediaPlayer/AudioPlayer.aspx?ContentGuid=a9feed9a-6fff-429e-8d49-ddcd0fcd3735

I'm on all this week and until next Tuesday....